Do the maths!

Dear Sir

A great many of the claims surrounding the EU referendum, particularly with regard to the effect on trade are based on speculation. I feel I can bring some objectivity to the argument with some simple mathematics, which I encourage your readers to check for themselves.

According to the ‘Remain’ camp, the UK paid the EU a net figure (i.e. not including spending on  ‘EU benefits’ in the UK) of £8.5bn in 2015 to access the Single Market (which is a ‘Customs Union’, not a ‘Free Trade Area’ as many believe). I suspect the actual cost is higher, but for argument sake, we’ll use their numbers. This equates to £708m per month.

According to the Government’s Office for National Statistics, in February (the last month for which figures are available) the UK exported goods and services worth £11.2bn to consumers in the EU.

Dividing the former by the latter and multiplying by 100 to express the figure as a percentage, we get 6.32. So effectively, the UK pays a 6.32% tariff on all its exports to the EU.

According to the WTO (World Trade Organisation), countries with no trade deal pay an average tariff of 1.09% on their exports  – less than an average week’s swing in currency markets.

So, in the absolute worst case scenario of the UK getting no Trade Deal with the EU post Brexit (which is unthinkable considering non-EU, non-European South Korea and Mexico have one), we’d save the £8.5bn and pay less than a quarter of the amount we currently pay to export into the EU.

Of course, the cost of complying with regulations for products exported to consumers in the EU would remain unchanged, however, most regulation of this type is now harmonised with global standards by international bodies like the UNECE so products would comply anyway.

References:

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

http://www.globalbritain.co.uk/sites/default/files/publications/GB%20Brexit%20Position%20Paper.pdf

Stuart Hutton CEng MIET.

Positive case for Brexit

In his letter of 11 May, Dr Peter Hirst is unclear of the vision for the UK post Brexit.

I am happy to provide the vision shared by the vast majority of people voting to leave the EU;

It is a vision of a self-governing, sovereign nation where everyone is equal under Common Law, for which our respect is based on our ability to shape that law through our democratically elected and accountable politicians.

A friendly country, with an Immigration Policy discriminating only on the basis of a person’s skills and attributes according to the needs of our industries and public services, and not merely their nationality.

A compassionate nation, reflecting the best nature of our people by extending the hand of friendship and assistance to those in need around the world, wherever they may be, unhindered by political dithering and indecisiveness.

An internationalist country which uses its seat on influential global bodies like the UN Security Council, G7 and WTO to do what we always did best; defend freedom and democracy and promote co-operation through trade.

A co-operative country which works with our neighbours and harmonises regulation on areas of shared interest (like the environment, travel, and product standards) through bodies like the UNECE and Council of Europe, but maintains control over those matters key to our National Interest.

A prosperous country, trading freely not only with our friends in Europe, but also with our partners around the world, many of which share our language, culture and contract law.

The sad truth is that we cannot be any of these things whilst we are shackled to the political prison and economic dead-weight of the EU. 

This is not some far-fetch dream of a utopian future; these things are second nature to us in the United Kingdom. It is how we always were, the platform upon which we once became the most successful country in the world, and what we can be again - only by voting to leave the EU on June 23rd.

Dr. Hirst’s scare stories of fear and isolation couldn't be any further from the truth. A vote to leave the EU and re-embrace the world is the positive, confident, optimistic and natural choice for the United Kingdom.

Stuart Hutton, Nantwich.

Taking the 'Mick'...

Taking the 'Mick'... (letter to the Crewe/Nantwich Chronicles)...

Intelligence is the ability to learn from one’s experiences. Cleverness is the ability to learn from those of others. By persisting with his claim that the UK has the influence to reform the EU in any meaningful way, despite 40 years of evidence to the contrary, Labour’s Mick Roberts demonstrates a deficit of both.

Let us examine the evidence. Since 1996, the UK has voted in the European Council against laws not in our National Interest no fewer than 72 times. On all 72 occasions we have been outvoted and forced to adopt laws against the wishes of our democratically elected government.

In 2005, Tony Blair received ‘firm assurances’ from the EU for reform of the unfair Common Agricultural Policy in exchange for the surrender of more British Powers and £10bn. Since then, the cost of CAP has ballooned to over £40bn a year, resulting in consumers paying 14% more for food (when compared to global market prices for crops).

As we saw, our own PM spent 3 years jetting around EU capitals, begging the leaders of countries like Latvia and Estonia for the right to make very minor changes to a few UK laws, which despite the protestations of only the most obedient careerist Government Ministers, do nothing to return powers from Brussels.

And now, with the UK - its second biggest member - on the verge of leaving, the EU still demonstrates a total reluctance to reform, instead accelerating further to its corporatist, federalist end-game. Wake up. We have no influence. The EU will not reform.

Mr Roberts should accept that his dream of a Global Socialist Utopia is the antithesis of the EU, which is run by big corporations, for the benefit of big corporations. Labour supporters would do well to consider the views of the many Trade Unions which support Brexit: www.tuaeu.co.uk

Stuart Hutton, Nantwich.

Show me the money!

Show me the Money (3 minutes).

Over the coming weeks you can hear a lot of facts and statistics from both sides of the debate, presented in a way to suit their particular argument. It will be difficult to determine the truth. But if there is one thing I have learned about the truth, from business and politics, it is this; follow the money. Talk is cheap. Money talks. If people really mean something, they’ll put ./down their money.

You’re going to hear scare stories about how millions of jobs will be lost, as companies flee the U.K. and the ‘economic armageddon’ that will follow Brexit.

We’ve known for 3 years now that this referendum is coming up and that a vote for Brexit is a strong possibility. So if what the anti-Brexit brigade are saying is true, these big companies wouldn’t be spending any money on their UK operations, would they?

Well let’s take a look. In my industry alone;

• Bentley have announced £800m investment in new models, R&D and 1000 extra jobs.
• Aston Martin, just last week announced a new £200m factory in Wales, another 100 new jobs. Their CEO Andy Palmer said that Brexit had ‘no bearing’ on the decision.
• Jaguar Land Rover, in the last few months have announced £450m investment extending their factory in Wolverhampton,
• £450m in their Birmingham factory,
• £500m on a new R&D centre in Coventry
• £120m in Solihull. Clearly - they are ‘petrified’ of brexit [sarcasm].
• Toyota £100m in Derby, 1500 new jobs. CEO Mr Akio Toyoda said Brexit makes ‘no difference’ to Toyota’s plans.
• Vauxhall, £185m, 1200 jobs. CEO Tim Tozer said brexit won’t stop Vauxhall doing business here because it’s “unthinkable that the EU wouldn’t do a trade deal with the UK”.
• Nissan, £100m and a new model in their factory in Sunderland, Europe’s most productive car plant. That factory now produces more cars than the whole of Italy.
• Last week, Ford announced £240m for its factory in Wales, 600 new jobs.
• Honda, £200m in Swindon.

That’s £3.35bn in long-term investments from the automotive industry alone. Are these companies that are concerned about Brexit? Of course not, because anyone in business will tell you - you invest where there is growth, you invest where there are skills, you invest where there are natural resources, you invest where there is a business friendly culture and a dynamic economy. You invest in the UK, whether we are in the EU or not.

So next time you hear these scaremongerers doing our country down, you tell them - “show me the money!”.

References:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/bentley-suv-prime-minister-welcomes-800-million-investment-and-1000-new-jobs

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-astonmartin-wales-idUKKCN0VX001

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/jaguar-land-rover-reveals-giant-10707296

http://www.expressandstar.com/business/2015/11/24/jaguar-land-rover-to-invest-450-million-to-expand-wolverhampton-engine-plant/

http://www.birminghampost.co.uk/business/business-news/solihull-boost-jaguar-land-rover-10057590

https://www.industryforum.co.uk/resources/news/toyota-strengthens-commitment-to-uk-manufacturing-with-100-million-investment-in-burnaston-facility/

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/633808/EU-referendum-Brexit-Toyota-Akio-Toyoda-Burnaston-jobs

http://media.gm.com/media/gb/en/vauxhall/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/gb/en/2014/vauxhall/06-23-uk-jobs-and-investment.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11866869/Ignore-the-scaremongers-manufacturing-powerhouse-Vauxhall-says-it-would-be-fine-outside-the-EU.html

http://britishfamily.co.uk/will-manufactures-leave-the-uk-if-we-brexit/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34136541

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/31/honda-200m-investment-record-week-uk-car-industry-swindon-factory-civic

Speech at EU Referendum Debate 2/3/16.

Let's be clear - we are NOT talking about ‘Leaving Europe’ – that’s the wonderful and diverse continent of 50 countries to which will always belong - but whether we want to be governed by the institutions of the European Union - a political project of 28 countries, voted for by no-one.

The problems with the EU are well documented. It is;

• undemocratic and un-reformable,
• expensive and wasteful,
• expansionist and interfering,
• it is
• riddled with fraud,
• we have little to no influence,
• it’s a risk to our security,
• and it is economically crippled by the euro.
• ….but apart from that, it's fine.

By leaving the EU we can

• Still trade with people and companies in the EU on better terms than we have now.
• Still travel freely in Europe without the need for a visa,
• Still have Worker’s Rights and Human Rights laws in British Law.
• Still co-operate on big global issues, like climate change and counter-terrorism through international bodies like the UN, Interpol and the WTO.

Free of the EU we can also

• set up trade deals with the parts of the world that are actually have growth.
• Reclaim our democracy so we can hold our politicians to account
• Regain and our personal freedom and protection under the British Common Law, where we are innocent until proven guilty, and can’t be arrested without evidence.
• We can scrap EU regulations that we don’t want, and certainly didn’t vote for.
• Welcome immigrants on the basis of the skills our industries and public services need, not based on where they were born.

The Remainers will try to spread fear – that brexit is a ‘leap into the dark’, but they are wasting their time…

• Because  we, in these islands are motivated by hope, not fear…
• Because we are
• ambitious and adventurous,
• innovative and industrious,
• internationalist and outward looking,
• Because we know freedom is so very hard won, but easily lost…
• Because we will remember that we are a powerful and influential nation, the world’s 5th biggest economy, 4th military power, permanent member of the UN security council. We are the world's financial centre and gave it legal and democratic systems, and freedom by standing alone against totalitarianism.
• Because we live in an interconnected, interdependent, international world – a world that we shaped and must re-engage with.
• Because we will vote – for a confident stride in to the light – as a proud, free, democratic and prosperous United Kingdom.

Labour's EU Lunacy.

Reply to letter in Crewe, Nantwich Chronicle of Wed March 2nd:

I was pleased to read Labour’s Mick Roberts call for voters to ‘look past the subterfuge’ regarding the forthcoming EU referendum, and entertained by the staggering amounts of subterfuge in the remainder of his letter. Chief among this was his claim that Worker’s Rights would be lost should the UK leave the EU.

A cursory examination of the facts reveals that in many areas of employment law, UK statutory requirements already far exceed those of the EU, and would hence be unaffected by ‘Brexit’. For instance, EU statutory paid annual leave is 20 days. In the UK it is 28 days. EU statutory paid maternity leave is a mere 14 weeks, in the UK it is 39 weeks.

Any rights or protections that are not covered by UK law can be replaced by additional legislation. The key here is that it would be we, the British People that decide, not unelected and unaccountable bureaucrats in Brussels.

As for Mr Roberts’ claims that Labour ‘will fight for a Social Europe’; I wonder if he has seen the news regarding the UK fighting for anything at the EU over the last 40 years? The events of the last few weeks demonstrate that the EU is totally unwilling to reform, in any direction, even when its second biggest benefactor is on the verge of leaving.

I am perplexed by Labour’s unquestioning support of the EU when so many of its consequences are bad for British Workers. Uncontrolled immigration has kept wages down, as asserted by the Bank of England. The Public Services upon which working people rely struggle to cope. The democracy for which working people like the Peterloo Martyrs fought and died - has been surrendered.

The TTIP deal currently being put together by Cecelia Malmstrom the (unelected) EU Trade Commissioner poses a very real threat the the NHS and will hand unprecedented power to to big corporations. If readers are unclear about how undemocratic the EU is, consider that when asked about how deeply unpopular TTIP is by The Independent, Ms. Malmstrom replied “I do not take my mandate from the people of Europe”.

The sooner Labour lets go of its infatuation with a Europe-wide Socialist Utopia and instead starts acting in the best interests of the British Working People it claims to represent, the better. Labour supporting folk would do well to consider the points of the many Trade Unions supporting Brexit: http://www.tuaeuc.org/

Stuart Hutton

Nantwich.