Do the maths!

Dear Sir

A great many of the claims surrounding the EU referendum, particularly with regard to the effect on trade are based on speculation. I feel I can bring some objectivity to the argument with some simple mathematics, which I encourage your readers to check for themselves.

According to the ‘Remain’ camp, the UK paid the EU a net figure (i.e. not including spending on  ‘EU benefits’ in the UK) of £8.5bn in 2015 to access the Single Market (which is a ‘Customs Union’, not a ‘Free Trade Area’ as many believe). I suspect the actual cost is higher, but for argument sake, we’ll use their numbers. This equates to £708m per month.

According to the Government’s Office for National Statistics, in February (the last month for which figures are available) the UK exported goods and services worth £11.2bn to consumers in the EU.

Dividing the former by the latter and multiplying by 100 to express the figure as a percentage, we get 6.32. So effectively, the UK pays a 6.32% tariff on all its exports to the EU.

According to the WTO (World Trade Organisation), countries with no trade deal pay an average tariff of 1.09% on their exports  – less than an average week’s swing in currency markets.

So, in the absolute worst case scenario of the UK getting no Trade Deal with the EU post Brexit (which is unthinkable considering non-EU, non-European South Korea and Mexico have one), we’d save the £8.5bn and pay less than a quarter of the amount we currently pay to export into the EU.

Of course, the cost of complying with regulations for products exported to consumers in the EU would remain unchanged, however, most regulation of this type is now harmonised with global standards by international bodies like the UNECE so products would comply anyway.

References:

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

http://www.globalbritain.co.uk/sites/default/files/publications/GB%20Brexit%20Position%20Paper.pdf

Stuart Hutton CEng MIET.

Positive case for Brexit

In his letter of 11 May, Dr Peter Hirst is unclear of the vision for the UK post Brexit.

I am happy to provide the vision shared by the vast majority of people voting to leave the EU;

It is a vision of a self-governing, sovereign nation where everyone is equal under Common Law, for which our respect is based on our ability to shape that law through our democratically elected and accountable politicians.

A friendly country, with an Immigration Policy discriminating only on the basis of a person’s skills and attributes according to the needs of our industries and public services, and not merely their nationality.

A compassionate nation, reflecting the best nature of our people by extending the hand of friendship and assistance to those in need around the world, wherever they may be, unhindered by political dithering and indecisiveness.

An internationalist country which uses its seat on influential global bodies like the UN Security Council, G7 and WTO to do what we always did best; defend freedom and democracy and promote co-operation through trade.

A co-operative country which works with our neighbours and harmonises regulation on areas of shared interest (like the environment, travel, and product standards) through bodies like the UNECE and Council of Europe, but maintains control over those matters key to our National Interest.

A prosperous country, trading freely not only with our friends in Europe, but also with our partners around the world, many of which share our language, culture and contract law.

The sad truth is that we cannot be any of these things whilst we are shackled to the political prison and economic dead-weight of the EU. 

This is not some far-fetch dream of a utopian future; these things are second nature to us in the United Kingdom. It is how we always were, the platform upon which we once became the most successful country in the world, and what we can be again - only by voting to leave the EU on June 23rd.

Dr. Hirst’s scare stories of fear and isolation couldn't be any further from the truth. A vote to leave the EU and re-embrace the world is the positive, confident, optimistic and natural choice for the United Kingdom.

Stuart Hutton, Nantwich.